Ishicilelwe nguNicholas Woodroof, Umhleli
Umanyolo Womhlaba, ngoLwesibili, 15 Mashi 2022 09:00
Ukuthembela kakhulu kwe-India kugesi yemvelo e-liquified (LNG) engenisiwe njengesizinda sikamanyolo kuveza ishidi lezwe ekukhuphukeni kwentengo kagesi okuqhubekayo emhlabeni wonke, okwandisa umthethosivivinywa kahulumeni woxhaso lukamanyolo, ngokusho kombiko omusha we-Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). ).
Ngokusuka ekuthengeni i-LNG ebizayo yokukhiqiza umanyolo futhi isebenzise izinto zasekhaya esikhundleni salokho, i-India inganciphisa ubungozi bayo emananini entengo kaphethiloli aphakeme futhi aguquguqukayo futhi yehlise umthwalo womxhaso, kusho umbiko.
Amaphuzu abalulekile avela embikweni yilawa:
Impi yaseRussia ne-Ukraine inyuse amanani entengo kaphethiloli emhlabeni jikelele. Lokhu kusho ukuthi uxhaso lukamanyolo olubekwe ku-Rs1 trillion (US$14 billion) lungase lunyuke.
I-India nayo ingalindela uxhaso oluphakeme kakhulu ngenxa yokwehla kwezinga lokunikezwa kukamanyolo okuvela eRussia okuzoholela ekwenyukeni kwentengo kamanyolo emhlabeni jikelele.
Ukusetshenziswa kwe-LNG evela kwamanye amazwe ekukhiqizeni umanyolo kuyanda. Ukuncika ku-LNG kuveza i-India ezintengo zegesi eziphakeme neziguquguqukayo, kanye nebhili ephezulu yoxhaso lukamanyolo.
Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ukuthuthukiswa kwe-ammonia eluhlaza kuzoba semqoka kakhulu ekuvimbeleni i-India ekuthengeni impahla ebizayo ye-LNG kanye nomthwalo omningi womxhaso. Njengesinyathelo sesikhashana, uhulumeni anganikezela ngegesi yasekhaya elinganiselwe ekukhiqizeni umanyolo esikhundleni senethiwekhi yokusabalalisa igesi yedolobha.
Igesi yemvelo iyona esetshenziswa kakhulu (70%) ekukhiqizweni kwe-urea, futhi njengoba intengo yegesi yomhlaba wonke yenyuka ngo-200% isuka ku-US$8.21/million Btu ngoJanuwari 2021 yaya ku-US$24.71/million Btu ngoJanuwari 2022, i-urea yaqhubeka nokuhlinzekwa kwezolimo. ngenani elifanayo elaziswa ngokomthetho, okuholele ekwenyukeni komxhaso.
“Isabelomali soxhaso lukamanyolo silinganiselwa ku-US$14 billion noma ama-Rs1.05 trillion,” kusho umlobi wombiko uPurva Jain, umhlaziyi we-IEFA kanye nomnikeli wezivakashi, “okwenze kwaba unyaka wesithathu ilandelana ukuthi uxhaso lukamanyolo lube ngaphezu kwama-Rs1 trillion.
"Njengoba amanani entengo kaphethiloli avele ephezulu emhlabeni wonke abhebhethekiswa ukuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine, uhulumeni uzodinga ukuthi abuyekeze uxhaso lukamanyolo lube phezulu kakhulu njengoba unyaka uqhubeka, njengoba kwenzeka ngo-FY2021/22."
Lesi simo sihlanganiswa nokuthembela kwe-India eRussia ngomanyolo we-phosphatic and potassic (P&K) onjenge-NPK ne-muriate of potash (MOP), kusho uJain.
“Izwe laseRussia lingumkhiqizi omkhulu futhi elithumela kwamanye amazwe ukuphazamiseka kukamanyolo nokuhanjiswa ngenxa yempi kunyusa amanani kamanyolo emhlabeni jikelele. Lokhu kuzophinde kwenyuse imali yoxhaso lwaseNdiya.”
Ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nezindleko eziphakeme zokufaka umanyolo okhiqizwa kuleli kanye nokuthengwa kukamanyolo obiza kakhulu, uhulumeni ucishe waphinda kabili isilinganiso sakhe sesabelomali sika-2021/22 soxhaso safinyelela ku-R1.4 trillion (US$19 billion).
Amanani entengo kaphethiloli wasekhaya kanye ne-LNG engenisiwe ahlanganiswe ukuze anikeze igesi kubakhiqizi be-urea ngentengo efanayo.
Njengoba izimpahla zasekhaya zidluliselwa kunethiwekhi kahulumeni yokusabalalisa igesi yedolobha (CGD), ukusetshenziswa kwe-LNG ebizayo evela kwamanye amazwe ekukhiqizeni umanyolo kukhuphuka ngokushesha. Ngo-FY2020/21 ukusetshenziswa kwe-LNG evuselelwe kabusha kwakuphezulu kwafinyelela ku-63% wesamba segesi esetshenziswayo emkhakheni kamanyolo, ngokusho kombiko.
"Lokhu kuphumela emthwalweni omkhulu womxhaso ozoqhubeka nokukhuphuka njengoba ukusetshenziswa kwe-LNG evela kwamanye amazwe kukhuphuka ukukhiqizwa kukamanyolo," kusho uJain.
“Intengo ye-LNG ibilokhu iguquguquka kakhulu selokhu kwaqala ubhubhane, amanani afinyelela phezulu kuma-US$56/MMBtu ngonyaka odlule. Izintengo ze-LNG zibikezelwa ukuthi zizohlala ngaphezu kuka-US$50/MMBtu kuze kube uSepthemba 2022 kanye no-US$40/MMBtu kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka.
"Lokhu kuzoba yingozi e-India njengoba uhulumeni kuzomele axhase ngokukhuphuka okukhulu kwezindleko zokukhiqiza i-urea."
Njengesinyathelo sesikhashana, lo mbiko uphakamisa ukwaba ukunikezwa kwegesi yasekhaya okulinganiselwe ekukhiqizeni umanyolo esikhundleni senethiwekhi ye-CGD. Lokhu kungasiza futhi uhulumeni ukuthi ahlangabezane nenhloso ye-60 MT ye-urea evela emithonjeni yendabuko.
Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ukuthuthukiswa esikalini se-hydrogen eluhlaza, esebenzisa amandla avuselelekayo ukwenza i-ammonia eluhlaza ukuze kukhiqizwe i-urea nezinye izivundisi, kuzoba semqoka ekukhuphuleni i-carbon dioxide ekulima nasekuvimbeni i-India ekuthengisweni okumba eqolo kwe-LNG kanye nomthwalo omkhulu womxhaso.
“Leli yithuba lokuvumela ezinye izindlela ezihlanzekile ezingezona izinsalela ezimbiwa phansi,” kusho uJain.
“Ukonga kwimixhaso ngenxa yokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwe-LNG evela kwamanye amazwe kungaqondiswa ekuthuthukisweni kwe-green ammonia. Futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali ekuthuthukisweni okuhleliwe kwengqalasizinda ye-CGD kungaphambukiselwa ekusetshenzisweni kwezinye izindlela zamandla avuselelekayo okupheka nokuhamba.”
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-20-2022