Ipapashwe nguNicholas Woodroof, uMhleli
Isichumisi seHlabathi, ngoLwesibini, 15 Matshi 2022 09:00
Ukuthembela kakhulu eIndiya kwirhasi yendalo ethengiweyo (LNG) njengesixhobo sokutya isichumiso kuveza ibhalansi yelizwe ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso erhasi eqhubekayo, inyusa ibhili yenkxaso yesichumiso sikarhulumente, ngokwengxelo entsha yeZiko loQoqosho lwaMandla kunye noHlahlelo lweMali (IEEFA). ).
Ngokusuka ekuthengeni ngaphandle kwe-LNG ebiza kakhulu kwimveliso yesichumisi kunye nokusebenzisa izinto zasekhaya endaweni yoko, i-Indiya inokunciphisa ukuba sesichengeni kwayo ukuya kumaxabiso erhasi aphezulu naguquguqukayo kwaye yenza lula umthwalo wenkxaso, itsho ingxelo.
Amanqaku aphambili aphuma kwingxelo ngala:
Imfazwe yaseRussia-Ukraine iye yawandisa amaxabiso erhasi asele ephezulu. Oku kuthetha ukuba i-R1 yetriliyoni eqingqwayo (i-US$14 yebhiliyoni) yenkxaso yesichumiso isenokwenyuka.
I-Indiya inokulindela inkxaso-mali ephezulu kakhulu ngenxa yokucotha konikezelo lwesichumiso oluvela eRussia oluya kukhokelela ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso ezichumisi kwihlabathi liphela.
Ukusetyenziswa kwe-LNG evela kumazwe angaphandle kwimveliso yesichumisi kuyanda. Ukuxhomekeka kwi-LNG kubhentsisa i-Indiya kumaxabiso erhasi aphezulu naguqukayo, kunye nebhili ephezulu yenkxaso yesichumiso.
Ngexesha elide, ukuphuhliswa kwe-ammonia eluhlaza kuya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo ekugqumeni i-Indiya kwiimpahla ze-LNG ezibizayo kunye nomthwalo wenkxaso ephezulu. Njengenyathelo lethutyana, urhulumente unokwabelwa unikezelo lwerhasi yasekhaya elinganiselweyo kwimveliso yesichumisi endaweni yokuhambisa igesi yesixeko.
Irhasi yendalo lelona galelo liphambili (70%) kwimveliso ye-urea, kwaye nanjengoko amaxabiso erhasi yehlabathi enyuke nge-200% ukusuka kwi-US$8.21/million yeBtu ngoJanuwari 2021 ukuya kwiUS$24.71/million yeBtu ngoJanuwari 2022, iurea iqhubekile nokubonelelwa kwezolimo. icandelo ngexabiso elifanayo elaziswa ngokomthetho, elikhokelele ekwenyukeni kwenkxaso-mali.
“Uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwenkxaso yesichumiso malunga ne-US$14 yebhiliyoni okanye i-Rs1.05 yetriliyoni,” utshilo umbhali wengxelo uPurva Jain, umhlalutyi we-IEEFA kunye nomxhasi weendwendwe, “ibe ngunyaka wesithathu isibonelelo sesichumiso sifikelele kwi-R1 yetriliyoni.
"Ngamaxabiso egesi erhasi esele exhomile kwihlabathi ethe kratya kuhlaselo lwaseRussia lwaseUkraine, urhulumente kuya kufuneka ahlaziye isibonelelo sesichumiso phezulu kakhulu njengoko unyaka uqhubeka, njengoko wenzayo ngo-FY2021/22."
Le meko yongezwa kukuxhomekeka kweIndiya kwiRussia kwizichumisi ze-phosphatic kunye ne-potassic (P&K) ezinjenge-NPK kunye ne-muriate of potash (MOP), utshilo uJain.
"I-Russia ngumvelisi ophambili kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwesichumiso kunye nokuphazamiseka kokubonelela ngenxa yemfazwe kuqhuba amaxabiso ezichumisi kwihlabathi jikelele. Oku kuya kwandisa imali yenkxaso-mali yaseIndiya. ”
Ukuhlangabezana neendleko eziphezulu zokufakwa kwezichumiso ezenziwe ekhaya kunye nokuthengwa kwesichumisi esibiza kakhulu, urhulumente uphantse waphinda kabini uqikelelo lohlahlo lwabiwo-mali luka-2021/22 lwenkxaso-mali ukuya kwi-R1.4 yetriliyoni (i-19 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi).
Amaxabiso erhasi yasekhaya kunye ne-LNG ethunyelwa kumazwe angaphandle adityaniselwe ukubonelela ngegesi kubavelisi be-urea ngexabiso elifanayo.
Ngokunikezelwa kwezibonelelo zasekhaya zithunyelwa kuthungelwano lukarhulumente losasazo lwegesi yesixeko (CGD), ukusetyenziswa kwe-LNG ebiza kakhulu evela kumazwe angaphandle kwimveliso yesichumisi kuye kwanyuka ngokukhawuleza. Kwi-FY2020/21 ukusetyenziswa kwe-LNG ehlaziyiweyo yayiphezulu njenge-63% yokusetyenziswa kwerhasi iyonke kwicandelo lesichumisi, ngokutsho kwengxelo.
"Oku kuphumela kumthwalo omkhulu wenkxaso-mali oya kuqhubeka nokunyuka njengoko ukusetyenziswa kwe-LNG evela kumazwe angaphandle kwimveliso yesichumisi kunyuka," kusho uJain.
“Amaxabiso e-LNG ebeguquguquka kakhulu ukusukela oko kwathi kwaqala lo bhubhani, namaxabiso afikelele kwi-US$56/MMBtu kulo nyaka uphelileyo. Amaxabiso eendawo ze-LNG kuqikelelwa ukuba aya kuhlala engaphezulu kwe-US$50/MMBtu ukuya kutsho kuSeptemba wama-2022 kunye ne-US$40/MMBtu kude kube sekupheleni konyaka.
"Oku kuya kuba yingozi eIndiya njengoko urhulumente kuya kufuneka abonelele ngokunyuka kweendleko zemveliso ye-urea."
Njengenyathelo lexeshana, ingxelo icebisa ukwabiwa kwegesi yasekhaya enyiniweyo kwimveliso yesichumisi endaweni yothungelwano lweCGD. Oku kuya kunceda urhulumente ukuba ahlangabezane nokujoliswe kuko kwe-60 MT ye-urea evela kwimithombo yemveli.
Kwixesha elide, uphuhliso kwizinga le-hydrogen eluhlaza, esebenzisa amandla avuselelekayo ukwenza i-ammonia eluhlaza ukuvelisa i-urea kunye nezinye izichumisi, kuya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo ekulimeni kwe-decarbonising kunye nokukhusela i-Indiya ekuthengisweni kwe-LNG ebizayo kunye nomthwalo ophezulu wenkxaso-mali.
“Eli lithuba lokuvumela ukuba kucoceke ezinye iindlela zamafutha angeyofosili,” utsho uJain.
“Ukonga kwiinkxaso-mali ngenxa yokunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwe-LNG evela kumazwe angaphandle kunokujoliswa kuphuhliso lweammonia eluhlaza. Kwaye utyalo-mali kulwandiso olucwangcisiweyo lweziseko ezingundoqo ze-CGD lunokujikwa ekusetyenzisweni kwezinye iindlela zamandla ahlaziyekayo ekuphekeni nasekuhambeni.”
Ixesha lokuposa: Jul-20-2022