IEEFA: izamuka ry’ibiciro bya LNG rishobora kuzamura inkunga y’ifumbire miriyari 14 z’amadolari y’Ubuhinde

Byanditswe na Nicholas Woodroof, Ubwanditsi
Ifumbire y'isi, Ku wa kabiri, 15 Werurwe 2022 09:00

Raporo nshya y’ikigo gishinzwe ubukungu n’isesengura ry’imari (IEEFA) ivuga ko Ubuhinde bwishingikirije cyane kuri gaze gasanzwe itumizwa mu mahanga (LNG) nk’ifumbire mvaruganda yerekana ifaranga ry’igihugu mu gihe izamuka ry’ibiciro bya gaze ku isi, byongera umushinga w’ingoboka ya leta y’ifumbire, ).
Raporo ivuga ko mu kuva mu mahanga LNG ihenze itumizwa mu musaruro w'ifumbire no gukoresha ibikoresho byo mu gihugu aho, Ubuhinde bushobora kugabanya intege nke z’ibiciro bya gaze ku isi kandi bihindagurika kandi bikorohereza umutwaro w’inkunga.

Ingingo z'ingenzi muri raporo ni:

Intambara y'Uburusiya na Ukraine yakajije umurego ibiciro bya gaze ku isi. Ibi bivuze ko ingengo yimari ingana na tiriyari imwe (miliyari 14 US $) inkunga y’ifumbire ishobora kwiyongera.
Ubuhinde bushobora kandi kwitega inkunga nyinshi cyane kubera ko ifumbire mvaruganda ituruka mu Burusiya bizatuma ibiciro by’ifumbire bizamuka ku isi.
Imikoreshereze ya LNG itumizwa mu mahanga mu kongera ifumbire iriyongera. Kwishingikiriza kuri LNG bigaragariza Ubuhinde ibiciro bya gaze bihindagurika kandi bihindagurika, hamwe n’umushinga w’ingoboka w’ifumbire.
Mu gihe kirekire, iterambere rya ammonia y'icyatsi rizaba ingenzi cyane mu gukumira Ubuhinde ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga bya LNG ndetse n'umutwaro uremereye. Mu rwego rw’agateganyo, guverinoma ishobora kugenera gazi nkeya mu gihugu mu gukora ifumbire aho kuba umuyoboro wo gukwirakwiza gazi mu mujyi.
Gazi isanzwe niyo yinjiza (70%) mu musaruro wa urea, ndetse n’uko ibiciro bya gaze ku isi byiyongereyeho 200% bivuye kuri US $ 8.21 / miliyoni Btu muri Mutarama 2021 bigera kuri US $ 24.71 / miliyoni Btu muri Mutarama 2022, urea yakomeje guhabwa ubuhinzi umurenge ku giciro kimwe cyamenyeshejwe n'amategeko, bigatuma inkunga yiyongera.

Umwanditsi wa raporo, Purva Jain, umusesenguzi wa IEEFA akaba n'umuterankunga w’abashyitsi, agira ati: “Ingengo y’imari igenerwa inkunga y’ifumbire igera kuri miliyari 14 z’amadolari y’Amerika cyangwa miliyoni 1.05.”

Ati: "Kubera ko ibiciro bya gaze bimaze kuba byinshi ku isi byiyongereye kubera ko Uburusiya bwateye Ukraine, guverinoma birashoboka ko igomba kuvugurura inkunga y'ifumbire iri hejuru cyane uko umwaka utashye, nk'uko byagenze muri FY2021 / 22."

Jain avuga ko iki kibazo cyiyongereye ku kuba Ubuhinde bushingiye ku Burusiya ku ifumbire ya fosifati na potasike (P&K) nka NPK na muriate ya potas (MOP).

Ati: “Uburusiya n’ibicuruzwa byinshi kandi byohereza mu mahanga ifumbire mvaruganda no guhagarika isoko kubera intambara bizamura ibiciro by’ifumbire ku isi. Ibi bizakomeza kongera inkunga ku Buhinde. ”

Kugira ngo hinjizwe amafaranga menshi y’ifumbire mvaruganda ikorerwa mu gihugu ndetse n’ifumbire ihenze itumizwa mu mahanga, guverinoma yikubye hafi inshuro ebyiri ingengo y’imari 2021/22 ingengo y’imari ingana na tiriyari 1.4 (miliyari 19 US $).

Ibiciro bya gaze mu gihugu na LNG bitumizwa mu mahanga byahujwe no kugeza gaze ku bakora uruganda rwa urea ku giciro kimwe.

Kubera ko ibikoresho byo mu gihugu byerekejwe mu muyoboro wa guverinoma yo gukwirakwiza gazi mu mujyi (CGD), ikoreshwa rya LNG ihenze mu mahanga mu musaruro w’ifumbire ryiyongereye cyane. Raporo ivuga ko muri FY2020 / 21 ikoreshwa rya LNG ryasubiwemo ryageze kuri 63% by'amafaranga yose yakoreshejwe mu rwego rw'ifumbire.

Jain agira ati: "Ibi bivamo umutwaro munini w'inkunga uzakomeza kwiyongera uko ikoreshwa rya LNG ritumizwa mu mahanga mu kongera ifumbire ryiyongera".

Ati: “Ibiciro bya LNG byahindutse cyane kuva icyorezo cyatangira, aho ibiciro byagaragaye byageze ku madorari y'Abanyamerika 56 / MMBtu umwaka ushize. Biteganijwe ko ibiciro bya LNG bizaguma hejuru ya US $ 50 / MMBtu kugeza muri Nzeri 2022 na US $ 40 / MMBtu kugeza umwaka urangiye.

Ati: "Ibi bizabangamira Ubuhinde kuko guverinoma igomba gutera inkunga cyane izamuka ryinshi ry’ibiciro by’umusaruro wa urea."

Mu rwego rw’agateganyo, raporo itanga igitekerezo cyo gutanga gazi nkeya mu gihugu mu gukora ifumbire aho kuba umuyoboro wa CGD. Ibi kandi byafasha leta kugera ku ntego ya MT 60 ya urea ikomoka mu basangwabutaka.

Mu gihe kirekire, iterambere ku gipimo cya hydrogène y'icyatsi kibisi, ikoresha ingufu zishobora kongera amoniya y’icyatsi kugira ngo itange urea n’ifumbire mvaruganda, izaba ingenzi mu buhinzi bwa decarbonizing no gukingira Ubuhinde ibicuruzwa biva muri LNG bihenze kandi umutwaro uremereye.

Jain agira ati: "Aya ni amahirwe yo gutuma ubundi buryo bwa peteroli butagira isuku butandukanye."

Ati: “Kuzigama mu nkunga biturutse ku kugabanya ikoreshwa rya LNG yatumijwe mu mahanga bishobora kwerekezwa ku iterambere rya amoniya. Kandi ishoramari mu bikorwa byo kwagura ibikorwa remezo bya CGD rishobora kwerekezwa ku gukoresha ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu mu guteka no kugenda. ”