Nicholas Woodroof ne ya buga, Edita
Takin Duniya, Talata, 15 ga Maris, 2022 09:00
Dogara sosai da Indiya ta yi kan shigo da iskar iskar gas (LNG) a matsayin abincin taki ya fallasa ma'auni na al'ummar kasar ga hauhawar farashin iskar gas da ake ci gaba da yi a duniya, yana karawa gwamnati kudirin tallafin taki, a cewar wani sabon rahoto da Cibiyar Tattalin Arziki da Tattalin Arziki ta Kasa (IEEFA) ta fitar. ).
Rahoton ya ce ta hanyar kawar da tsadar shigo da kayayyaki na LNG don samar da taki da kuma amfani da kayan cikin gida a maimakon haka, Indiya za ta iya rage radadin da take yi ga tsadar iskar gas a duniya da kuma saukaka nauyin tallafin.
Mahimman batutuwa daga rahoton sune:
Yakin Rasha da Ukraine ya kara ta'azzara farashin iskar gas da aka riga aka yi a duniya. Hakan na nufin tallafin takin da aka ware Naira tiriliyan 1 (dalar Amurka biliyan 14) na iya karuwa.
Indiya kuma za ta iya sa ran samun karin tallafin da zai samu sakamakon raguwar samar da taki daga Rasha wanda zai haifar da tashin gwauron zabin taki a duniya.
Amfani da LNG da ake shigowa da shi wajen samar da taki yana karuwa. Dogaro da LNG yana fallasa Indiya ga hauhawar farashin iskar gas, da ƙarin lissafin tallafin taki.
A cikin dogon lokaci, haɓakar ammonia koren zai zama mahimmanci don kare Indiya daga shigo da LNG masu tsada da babban nauyin tallafi. A matsayin ma'aunin wucin gadi, gwamnati na iya ware karancin iskar gas na cikin gida ga masana'antar takin zamani maimakon hanyar rarraba iskar gas a cikin birni.
Iskar iskar gas shine babban abin shigar (70%) don samar da urea, kuma ko da farashin iskar gas na duniya ya karu da kashi 200 daga dalar Amurka miliyan 8.21/Btu a watan Janairun 2021 zuwa dalar Amurka miliyan 24.71/Btu a watan Janairun 2022, an ci gaba da samar da urea ga noma. sashen a farashi mai ƙima da aka sanar, wanda ya haifar da ƙarin tallafi.
"Kasafin kasafin kudin tallafin taki ya kai kimanin dalar Amurka biliyan 14 ko tiriliyan 1.05," in ji mawallafin rahoton Purva Jain, manazarci na IEEFA kuma mai ba da gudummawar bako, "wanda ya zama shekara ta uku a jere da tallafin takin ya haura Rs1 tiriliyan.
"Tare da hauhawar farashin iskar gas a duniya da mamayar Rasha ta yi wa Ukraine, da alama gwamnati za ta sake duba tallafin taki fiye da yadda shekara ke ci gaba, kamar yadda ta yi a FY2021/22."
Wannan lamarin ya kara tabarbare ne sakamakon dogaro da kasar Indiya ta yi wa kasar Rasha wajen samun takin mai magani na Fosphatic da Potassic (P&K) irin su NPK da muriate na potash (MOP), in ji Jain.
“Rasha ita ce babbar mai samar da taki da kuma fitar da taki zuwa kasashen waje da kuma kawo cikas saboda yakin na kara tsadar taki a duniya. Wannan zai kara yawan kudaden tallafi ga Indiya."
Domin biyan karin kudin shigar da taki na cikin gida da kuma shigo da taki mai tsada, gwamnati ta kusan ninka kiyasin kasafin kudin shekarar 2021/22 na tallafin zuwa Rs1.4 tiriliyan (dalar Amurka biliyan 19).
Ana hada farashin iskar gas na cikin gida da LNG da ake shigowa da su don samar da iskar gas ga masana'antun urea akan farashi iri ɗaya.
A yayin da ake karkatar da kayan cikin gida zuwa tsarin rarraba iskar gas na gwamnati (CGD), amfani da LNG mai tsada da ake shigowa da shi wajen samar da taki yana karuwa cikin sauri. A cikin shekarar 2020/21, amfani da iskar gas da aka gyara ya kai kashi 63% na yawan iskar gas a bangaren taki, a cewar rahoton.
"Wannan yana haifar da wani babban nauyin tallafin da zai ci gaba da hauhawa yayin da amfani da LNG da ake shigowa da shi wajen samar da taki yana karuwa," in ji Jain.
“Farashin LNG ya kasance mai saurin canzawa tun farkon barkewar cutar, inda farashin tabo ya kai dalar Amurka 56/MMBtu a bara. Ana hasashen farashin tabo na LNG zai kasance sama da dalar Amurka 50/MMBtu har zuwa Satumbar 2022 da dalar Amurka 40/MMBtu har zuwa karshen shekara.
"Wannan zai zama mai lahani ga Indiya saboda dole ne gwamnati ta ba da tallafi mai yawa ga karuwar farashin noman urea."
A matsayin ma'auni na wucin gadi, rahoton ya ba da shawarar ware iyakokin iskar gas na cikin gida ga masana'antar takin zamani maimakon hanyar sadarwar CGD. Hakan kuma zai taimaka wa gwamnati wajen cimma burin 60 MT na sinadarin urea daga tushe na asali.
A cikin dogon lokaci, ci gaba a sikelin koren hydrogen, wanda ke amfani da makamashi mai sabuntawa don yin koren ammonia don samar da urea da sauran takin zamani, zai zama mahimmanci don lalata noma da hana Indiya daga shigo da LNG masu tsada da babban nauyin tallafi.
"Wannan wata dama ce ta ba da damar mafi tsaftar hanyoyin da ba burbushin man fetur ba," in ji Jain.
"Ajiye a cikin tallafin sakamakon rage amfani da LNG da ake shigo da shi za a iya kaiwa ga ci gaban ammonia kore. Kuma za a iya karkatar da saka hannun jari don fadada ayyukan CGD da aka tsara zuwa tura madadin makamashi mai sabuntawa don dafa abinci da motsi."
Lokacin aikawa: Yuli-20-2022